We’re just weeks away from the 2024 presidential election in the United States, and the latest polls show the race in nearly a dead heat. The two candidates — former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris — have made overtures to the crypto industry, though one much (much) more than the other. That brings us to an all-important question: Will the election influence the crypto market?
During interviews at Token2049, Charles Hoskinson, Jeremy Allaire, and Arthur Hayes reiterated that this election may not matter all that much to crypto as a whole. Hoskinson, for instance, said that “the world is moving on” and that the election “will not change the reality that the world will be decentralized.”
There may be some merit to that take. Crypto, after all, is a global phenomenon, and four years of Operation Choke Point 2.0 has not stopped bitcoin prices from rising to new heights. Gary Gensler may issue his Wells Notices, but crypto thrives in other places, even if the U.S. seems like a place that it would and perhaps should prosper.
Allaire, who is the CEO of Circle, says that no matter who wins, Congress is poised to act and that “there’s really good work” that is “being done from both sides of the political spectrum.” One of those efforts is the FIT21, which seeks to establish a regulatory framework in the United States for digital assets.
Still, a pro-crypto president in the U.S. could spur change in the industry, opening doors that have been closed for quite a long time. And that could create more innovation in crypto, leading to opportunities all the way down to retail traders. What has each candidate done to show their crypto credentials and who has the most crypto-friendly platform? Let’s dive in.
Donald Trump’s Crypto Platform and Promises
It needs to be said: Former President Donald Trump is the most crypto-friendly of the two candidates, although that hasn’t always been the case. Years after saying that crypto “seemed like a scam” and attacking Bitcoin for drawing attention away from the U.S. dollar, Trump has come full circle. Here are some of his credentials in the space:
- Paid for hamburgers with bitcoin at a joint in New York
- Launched numerous NFT collections that featured him as the main character
- Spoke at a Bitcoin convention in Nashville, TN
Trump has made crypto into a wedge issue, appealing to true crypto believers, and said that he wants to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world” and a “Bitcoin superpower.” At the Bitcoin convention, he said he would create a bitcoin strategic reserve and fire Gary Gensler on Day 1 if elected. He even chose J.D. Vance, a crypto proponent, as his running mate.
Many crypto leaders have endorsed Trump and even donated to his campaign. Those include Kraken’s Jesse Powell, the Winklevoss twins, and the founders of Andreessen Horowitz. For many in the crypto space, Trump is the clear crypto candidate, and it’s easy to see why.
Kamala Harris’s (Lack of) Crypto Platform and Promises
Kamala Harris hasn’t been so friendly towards crypto, and in the past she’s tended to lump it in with other emerging technologies like artificial intelligence. However, her tune has started to shift recently.
On October 14th, the Harris campaign posted a document to its website outlying her economic plan to help Black men in the U.S. called the “Opportunity Agenda.” While there isn’t much in it about crypto, there is this: “Supporting a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency and other digital assets so Black
men who invest in and own these assets are protected.”
But despite the recent promise, many in the industry still view Harris with skepticism, and perhaps rightfully so. For the past four years, she’s served as Vice President in the Biden administration, which has been hostile to the crypto industry. And she has appointed Brian Nelson, who oversaw a proposal to block crypto mixing services, as an advisor. Still, there are at least two crypto leaders who believe in her.
One of those is Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen, who donated $1 million in XRP to her campaign. Another is Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of global alternative investment firm SkyBridge Capital, who has endorsed her and said that she will treat crypto the same as Trump.
Others point to Harris’s Bay Area background as increasing the likelihood that she will be favorable to emerging technologies. But for now, she doesn’t enjoy equal favor in the crypto community as Trump, and is certainly not trying to woo crypto voters in the same way.
Can crypto voters swing the election?
The answer: It’s tough to tell.
According to a 2023 Federal Reserve Report, just 7% of Americans hold crypto, with 69% of Americans polled in swing states holding a negative view of the industry. But of those 7%, many may be single issue voters who will vote for the candidate seen as more favorable towards crypto.
Right now, the polls show Trump and Harris in a neck-and-neck race, with swing states in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada. Harris leads Trump by two points, accounting for 49% of the vote, while Trump accounts for 47%.
Then there’s this: The crypto industry is pouring serious money into this election. Fairshake, a non-partisan super PAC devoted to electing pro-crypto candidates and defeating anti-crypto candidates, has taken in over $200 million this cycle. Even if some of the space’s leaders don’t think this election is crucial, clearly others do.
Crypto is swinging for the fences in 2024, and the voters may be next up at bat.
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